FNUS73 KAPX 181207 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR THOMPSON FARM...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 807 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0815 EDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........36 AT IGNITION...MAX 59. RH..................78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE BECOMING SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 28 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-3900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........31 38 51 58 60 65 68 74 86 92 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............29 36 44 49 53 55 56 57 58 58 RH..............78 67 55 46 41 38 38 38 39 42 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 6 7 7 10 13 15 15 15 14 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 20 25 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 200 400 600 800 800 900 100011001200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........92 91 91 88 82 79 79 80 80 78 73 71 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO SCT ISO WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............58 58 58 56 53 51 49 47 46 45 45 44 RH..............44 44 45 51 57 63 68 76 79 82 82 82 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..12 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........67 55 60 68 89 95 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN TEMP............43 43 48 54 57 57 RH..............86 82 65 52 47 47 20 FT WIND......W 4 NW 5 N 6 N 6 NE 4 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 10 10 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 4 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120418.THOMP.01/APX