FNUS73 KDTX 171827 FWSDTX SPOT FORECAST FOR BAY CITY BURN...MI DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 227 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 12 TO 18 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY IGNITION TIME. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TEMPERED BY A FEW MPH WITHIN THE FULL SHELTER ENVIRONMENT OF THE BAY CITY BURN SITE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 MPH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE TREND FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33. RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH BY LATE EVENING. VENTILATION RATE....POOR (MIN...100). TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM SKY (%).........14 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 14 17 20 23 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............44 42 40 38 37 36 35 35 34 34 33 33 RH..............59 68 73 77 81 81 81 83 85 87 88 85 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 VRATE (KT-FT)...100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 26 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 28 MPH BY AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL. VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...1300). TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........24 31 44 51 53 56 58 62 67 71 75 80 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............36 41 46 50 54 57 59 61 61 62 61 60 RH..............80 71 61 56 45 42 40 40 39 39 41 43 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 15 14 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.7 VRATE (KT-FT)...100 200 300 400 500 600 600 800 900 110013001300 $$ FORECASTER...CLARK REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120418.BAYCI.02/DTX