FNUS75 KGJT 172136
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSEFLY UNIT R...USFS SAN JUAN NF PAGOSA RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MDT TUE APR 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE BURN SITE
ON WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD FUNNEL UP THE CANYON. WINDS ALOFT SHIFT
TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 10-13 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    BECOMING WEST AFTER 1700.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL AT 1200 INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL BY
                    1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH AT 1200 INCREASING TO
                    15 MPH BY 1500.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........49-56%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-12 MPH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST (DOWNVALLEY)
                    5 MPH BY 2300.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-63 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST 5 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
                    TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1200.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT WAGNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120418.HORSE.02/GJT