FNUS73 KOAX 181008 FWSOAX SPOT FORECAST FOR MCCALL...NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 508 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WILL STALL OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS FOR BURNING TODAY. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE BY MID MORNING. THUS WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 4 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST AT 45 PERCENT AT IGNITION SHOULD DROP TO BELOW 35 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 73. RH..................44 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL EARLY INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4900-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 1 TO 3 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM SKY (%).........31 31 32 35 43 49 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 71 73 71 64 59 RH..............44 37 33 35 44 54 20 FT WIND......NW 5 N 3 N 3 NE 5 NE 6 E 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65. RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 7 TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTH WINDS AROUND 13 MPH. .SATURDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...DERGAN REQUESTED BY...KYLE LAPHAM TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120418.MCCAL.01/OAX