FNUS71 KCTP 201905 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR FR 160...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 305 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1450 EDT ON APRIL 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE EAST COAST WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE OCCASIONAL 15-20KT WIND GUSTS. WITH FINE FUELS STILL RATHER DRY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ELEVATED/HIGH FIRE DANGER CENTERED OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 23 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............37 41 45 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................73 74 74 RH..................26 27 27 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S 20 FT WIND SPD......14 13 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 20 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.....23 23 23 CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 LAL.................1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............49 54 56 60 67 75 83 91 94 95 96 96 WEATHER COV......... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........ RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................72 69 67 65 64 62 60 59 57 55 53 51 RH..................30 34 38 43 48 54 59 64 70 74 79 84 20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD......10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 TRANSP WIND DIR.....S S SW S S S S SW SW W NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....23 23 22 18 14 10 8 6 5 6 8 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).....10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 60 60 60 70 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MIN HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............97 98 99 99 98 97 96 95 94 92 89 85 WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................49 48 46 46 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 43 RH..................84 85 90 88 85 83 83 83 83 82 80 79 20 FT WIND DIR......W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW N N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).....70 70 80 80 80 80 80 80 40 40 40 40 LAL.................5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...STEINBUGL REQUESTED BY...DIANA EMMONS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120420.FR160.01/CTP