FNUS71 KCTP 211450 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR FR 160I...ALLEGHENY NATIONAL FOREST/USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1050 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1037 EDT ON APRIL 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...DRAGGING COLD AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO MID WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW LINGER OVER THE REGION. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48. MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TSTM COV............ TEMP................47 47 46 45 43 42 42 41 RH..................78 73 76 78 81 82 83 84 20 FT WIND DIR......N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.....N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).....90 90 90 90 70 70 70 70 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............100 100 93 83 76 68 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................40 39 39 38 38 37 RH..................84 83 78 76 76 77 20 FT WIND..........N 8 N 8 N 7 N 5 N 5 N 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)........1900 1900 2200 1700 600 300 TRANSPORT WIND......N 13 N 13 N 15 N 14 N 10 N 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).....70 20 20 20 0 0 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........2 2 2 3 4 4 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 22 TO 24 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............58 39 39 39 57 57 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN TSTM COV............ TEMP................36 36 38 42 46 47 RH..................79 78 69 59 51 48 20 FT WIND..........N 8 NE 10 NE 13 NE 14 NE 14 NE 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 15 15 20 MIX HGT (FT)........800 2200 3500 4400 4600 4300 TRANSPORT WIND......N 12 NE 18 NE 18 NE 18 NE 18 NE 22 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 10 10 10 30 30 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP REQUESTED BY...DIANA EMMONS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120421.FR160.01/CTP