FNUS75 KRIW 221101
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER CLARKS FORK RX...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
501 AM MDT SUN APR 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHTER WIND TODAY.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THAT PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEVADA WILL ROTATE
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SO
ONLY SOME WEAKER CUMULUS BUILDUPS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE BURN SITE.

AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES
TO ROTATE FURTHER NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY ALONG
WITH ERRATIC CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (30-40 PERCENT) AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY LATE MORNING...THEN PRIMARILY
                    WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BY
                    1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO 5500-6500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27000 KNOT-FT) IN THE MORNING...BECOMING GOOD
                    (90000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).  AN ISOLATED EVENING SHOWER
                    POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-72 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST OR DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH 2100L...DECREASING TO
                    5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR (10400-37900 KNOT-FT) AT SUNSET.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120422.UPPER.02/RIW