FNUS75 KBYZ 231734
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR PICKET PIN RX  UNIT 2...BILLINGS DISPATCH CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1134 AM MDT MON APR 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1120 MDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERMIT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING ON THE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1600 WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BURN SITE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH WINDS MOSTLY UPSLOPE.
CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE SOME SHADING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS WILL STILL REACH 18-20 PERCENT. EXPECT A BETTER HUMIDITY
RECOVERY AT THE SITE TONIGHT BUT ONLY TO AROUND 50 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER IN
THE DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE MORE INTENSE. IT WILL STILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM BUT WITH HUMIDITY A BIT HIGHER AND WINDS A
BIT MORE ERRATIC AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BURN SITE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
                    WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................11 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......UPSLOPE 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
                    GUSTY WINDS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................17 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........49-53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    STARTING MIDDAY.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......UPSLOPE 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 15
                    MPH AROUND MIDDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BORSUM
REQUESTED BY...DAVE WALKS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120423.PICKE.03/BYZ