FNUS73 KMQT 231000 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR MOUTH OF THE CARP...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 600 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SLOWLY EXIT INTO QUEBEC TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND THE BURN AREA FALLING TO AROUND 24 PERCENT TODAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY. STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY...STEADY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 31 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT...TOPPING OUR NEAR 60 PERCENT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD PICK UP QUICKLY AGAIN TUESDAY WITH EVEN STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WE WILL FINALLY LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY... WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE WEST AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 38 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 45 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (297) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1972) LATE BEFORE DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (946) BY EARLY EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6600 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........1 2 5 10 17 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............46 49 51 52 48 RH..............32 27 24 24 30 GENERAL WIND....N 12 N 12 N 17 N 18 N 18 GENERAL GUST....21 24 29 31 26 VINDX KT-FT/100.940 1272 1688 1972 946 MIX HGT (FT)....4100 5300 6300 6400 3000 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37. MAX HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 30 TO 51 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (84). MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1300 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........21 24 28 31 37 43 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............46 42 40 39 37 37 RH..............34 46 51 53 57 59 GENERAL WIND....N 12 N 13 N 14 N 14 N 14 NW 14 GENERAL GUST....22 21 23 VINDX KT-FT/100.405 96 144 299 166 84 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 300 400 800 400 200 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 18 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 29 TO 51 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (848) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (3064) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (2001) LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8700-9000 FT AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........48 46 45 43 40 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............39 45 50 51 53 52 RH..............56 42 36 33 32 34 GENERAL WIND....NW 17 NW 17 NW 18 NW 18 NW 18 NW 16 GENERAL GUST....27 30 33 37 35 30 VINDX KT-FT/100.350 1501 2277 2429 3064 2001 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 4100 6300 7100 9000 6300 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...KF REQUESTED BY...PATTY CARRICK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120423.MOUTH.02/MQT