FNUS75 KRIW 232207 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR POLE CREEK RX...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 407 PM MDT MON APR 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 MDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MOIST WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF DOWN POURS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...LIPSON .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MAX HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH BY 2000 BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY FROM THE NORTHEAST 4-7 MPH BY 2300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.14 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3600 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13 TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (101400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR (43500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY 1100... THEN SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 1300 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8400-9400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 26 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (82300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (175000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .FRIDAY...COLDER. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...LIPSON REQUESTED BY...BART HOGAN REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120423.POLEC.02/RIW