FNUS75 KRIW 231113
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER CLARKS FORK RX...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
513 AM MDT MON APR 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS ROTATING INTO
NORTHWEST WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTH OVER FAR WEST MONTANA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS
UPVALLEY/UPSLOPE WIND FLOW THIS MORNING AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO TODAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH A
FEW HIGH-BASED DRY STORMS ESCAPING INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS...THE BEST CHANCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH
TOWARD EVENING FROM MORE NUMEROUS STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

ANOTHER SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE ACROSS WESTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS EXPECTED INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  AN ISOLATED SHOWER
                    OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH 0900 BECOMING
                    WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE MORNING...GUSTING TO
                    NEAR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTY ERRATIC WIND
                    NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH
                    BY 1500.
LAL.................1...THEN 2 AFTER 1500.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-6500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000...BECOMING GOOD (90000 KNOT-FT)
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-91 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. ERRATIC CONVECTIVE
                    OUTFLOWS...PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
                    DOMINATE THROUGH THE EVENING. BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    OR NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (17300-54200 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-69.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600-7600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (51200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (132600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120423.UPPER.01/RIW