FNUS75 KBOU 251318 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GOAT MOUNTAIN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 717 AM MDT WED APR 25 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR CUMULUS BUILDUPS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VARIABLE AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL OR SPRINKLES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ALSO BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER AND MORE MOIST WEATHER. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN INCREASING TO 12600-13600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46. MAX HUMIDITY........62%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 1400-2000 FT AGL AFTER 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...POOR AFTER 0200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65. MIN HUMIDITY........36%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7-13 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHWEST 11-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6400-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GOAT MOUNTAIN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/25-07 30 3 1 52 32 W 9 9 3 1 W41 2039 W15 35246 P 04/25-08 30 3 1 57 29 W 9 9 3 1 W39 3892 W17 68624 G 04/25-09 30 3 1 61 26 W 9 9 3 1 W36 5744 NW21 102001 V 04/25-10 30 3 1 65 22 W10 10 3 1 W33 8484 NW20 145872 V 04/25-11 30 3 1 68 19 W12 12 3 1 W30 11224 W20 189743 E 04/25-12 61 23 5 71 16 W13 13 3 2 W28 13964 W20 233613 E 04/25-13 61 23 5 72 16 W13 13 3 2 W23 14010 W17 204543 E 04/25-14 61 23 5 71 16 W14 21 3 2 W17 14057 W14 175473 E 04/25-15 75 23 5 72 16 W14 21 3 2 W14 14104 W12 146402 V 04/25-16 75 23 5 71 17 W14 21 3 2 W13 13087 W12 127942 V 04/25-17 75 23 5 70 18 W15 23 2 2 W12 12070 W10 109481 V 04/25-18 81 15 3 68 20 W15 23 2 2 W12 11053 W 9 91021 G 04/25-19 81 15 3 66 24 W14 20 2 2 SW 9 9246 W10 77741 G 04/25-20 81 15 3 60 31 W14 20 2 2 S 8 7439 W10 64461 G 04/25-21 81 15 3 56 37 W10 10 2 2 SE 8 5632 W10 51180 F 04/25-22 81 15 3 54 43 W 9 9 2 2 S 8 5106 W12 50989 F 04/25-23 81 15 3 53 47 W 9 9 2 2 SW10 4579 W13 50798 F 04/26-00 79 14 3 52 49 W 9 9 2 1 SW13 4053 W14 50607 F 04/26-01 79 14 3 52 49 W 9 9 2 1 SW16 3336 W18 48879 F 04/26-02 79 14 3 50 52 W 8 8 2 1 SW21 2619 W23 47151 F 04/26-03 79 14 3 47 58 W 8 8 2 1 W23 1902 W28 45422 F 04/26-04 79 14 3 47 59 W 7 7 2 1 W23 1619 W25 36436 P 04/26-05 79 14 3 46 62 W 7 7 2 1 SW22 1336 W23 27449 P 04/26-06 64 8 2 46 61 W 7 7 2 1 SW26 361 SW 8 2709 P 04/26-07 64 8 2 48 59 SW 7 7 2 1 SW28 2099 SW14 39503 P 04/26-08 64 8 2 54 48 S 7 7 2 1 SW28 3836 SW18 76298 G 04/26-09 64 8 2 57 45 S 7 7 2 1 SW29 5574 SW23 113092 V 04/26-10 64 8 2 60 41 S 8 13 2 1 SW30 6427 SW22 120479 V 04/26-11 64 8 2 62 39 S 9 15 2 1 SW31 7280 SW21 127867 V 04/26-12 87 57 33 65 36 S10 16 2 3 W31 8133 SW20 135254 V 04/26-13 87 57 33 65 36 S10 17 2 3 SW31 7746 SW18 123602 V 04/26-14 87 57 33 62 40 SW12 18 2 3 SW30 7359 SW17 111950 V 04/26-15 87 57 33 62 40 SW12 18 2 3 SW29 6972 SW16 100298 V 04/26-16 87 57 33 61 42 SW13 20 2 3 SW29 5914 SW14 77471 G 04/26-17 87 57 33 61 44 W13 21 3 3 SW28 4856 SW12 54644 F 04/26-18 96 40 14 58 48 W14 22 3 1 SW26 3799 SW 9 31816 P 04/26-19 96 40 14 56 51 W14 23 3 1 SW26 2631 SW12 22573 P 04/26-20 96 40 14 51 57 W15 23 2 1 SW25 1463 W14 13329 P 04/26-21 96 40 14 48 61 W15 24 2 1 SW25 295 W16 4085 P 04/26-22 96 40 14 46 66 W15 24 2 1 SW24 588 W20 11810 P 04/26-23 96 40 14 45 69 W16 25 2 1 S23 881 W23 19534 P 04/27-00 72 24 5 45 70 W16 25 2 1 S23 1173 W26 27259 P 04/27-01 72 24 5 45 68 W17 26 2 1 SW25 1319 W30 34631 P 04/27-02 72 24 5 44 68 W17 28 2 1 SW28 1465 W32 42004 F 04/27-03 72 24 5 43 68 W18 30 2 1 W32 1611 W36 49376 F 04/27-04 72 24 5 42 70 W20 31 2 1 W35 1873 W39 64362 G 04/27-05 72 24 5 41 72 W20 32 2 1 W38 2135 W41 79348 G 04/27-06 45 5 1 41 71 W21 33 2 1 NW41 2397 W45 94334 G 04/27-07 45 5 1 43 65 W22 35 2 1 NW44 3639 W47 151794 E 04/27-08 45 5 1 48 50 W22 35 2 1 W47 4881 W48 209253 E 04/27-09 45 5 1 50 44 NW22 35 2 1 W51 6122 W51 266713 E 04/27-10 45 5 1 52 38 NW22 35 2 1 W54 6513 W52 291276 E 04/27-11 45 5 1 54 35 NW22 35 2 1 W58 6904 W53 315839 E 04/27-12 35 13 3 56 32 NW21 33 2 1 W60 7295 W54 340402 E 04/27-13 35 13 3 56 31 NW20 32 2 1 W61 7427 W52 335079 E 04/27-14 35 13 3 53 33 NW18 30 2 1 W61 7560 W51 329755 E 04/27-15 35 13 3 53 33 NW18 30 2 1 W62 7692 W48 324432 E 04/27-16 35 13 3 52 33 NW18 30 2 1 W62 7947 W47 327945 E 04/27-17 35 13 3 52 33 NW20 31 2 1 W62 8201 W46 331458 E 04/27-18 34 14 3 49 36 W20 31 2 1 W63 8456 W46 334972 E 04/27-19 34 14 3 47 39 W18 30 2 1 W66 7332 W45 287559 E 04/27-20 34 14 3 43 45 W17 28 2 1 W67 6208 W44 240146 E 04/27-21 34 14 3 39 51 W16 25 2 1 W69 5084 W44 192733 E 04/27-22 34 14 3 37 54 NW15 24 2 1 W71 5086 W44 195648 E 04/27-23 34 14 3 37 55 NW14 22 2 1 W74 5088 W45 198564 E 04/28-00 23 4 1 36 56 NW13 21 2 1 W75 5090 W46 201479 E 04/28-01 23 4 1 36 56 NW13 20 2 1 W73 4873 W45 189717 E 04/28-02 23 4 1 35 57 NW13 20 2 1 W70 4656 W44 177954 E 04/28-03 23 4 1 34 58 W13 21 2 1 W67 4438 W43 166191 E 04/28-04 23 4 1 33 57 W14 22 2 1 W63 4284 W43 159816 E 04/28-05 23 4 1 33 55 W15 24 3 1 W61 4130 W43 153440 E 04/28-06 40 14 3 33 52 W16 25 3 1 W58 3976 W43 147065 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120425.GOATM.01/BOU