FNUS75 KRIW 251049
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST SLOPE RX...IA CDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
449 AM MDT WED APR 25 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON APRIL 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WERE OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THESE WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE WITH A BREAK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN FIRING OFF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ABSAROKAS AROUND 1400 AND MOVING EAST TOWARD THE BURN AREA BY
1600. LIGHT UPSLOPE WIND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ERRATIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDING
HIGHER.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE BURN SITE LATE TONIGHT. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (30-40 PERCENT).
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH LATE MORNING.
                    ERRATIC CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINATE
                    AFTER 1600...WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH NEAR STORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO NEAR 10000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR IN THE MORNING...BECOMING VERY GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200-3200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY EVENING SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900-7900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (55400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (112200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MUCH COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...JACK MONONI
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120425.WESTS.01/RIW