FNUS75 KBYZ 021332
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR FORT HOWES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
732 AM MDT WED MAY 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE FIRE IS COOL AND MOIST THIS MORNING
BUT THE AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS DRY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP THE INVERSION FROM BREAKING UNTIL LATE MORNING. WHEN
THE INVERSION BREAKS...EXPECT HUMIDITY TO DROP QUICKLY BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AROUND NOON WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BEGIN MIXING FASTER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 1800 AND 2000 MDT BRINGING A
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THURSDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
BORSUM


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................27 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BORSUM
REQUESTED BY...PATRICK DAVIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120502.FORTH.01/BYZ