FNUS73 KFGF 032051 AAA FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR TYMPANUCHUS...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 351 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 CDT ON MAY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...UPDATED DUE TO LOCALIZED DROP IN RH... A LITTLE MORE MIXING IN THE BURN AREA HAS ALLOWED RH TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW THE EARLIER ANTICIPATED MINIMUM. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE BASED ON TRENDS AND MODEL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH...A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH ABUNDANT AMBIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING...LEADING TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY IN MOST AREAS. DESPITE THE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER THE NORTH WINDS WILL ADVECT IN LOWER DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES ALLOWING AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY TO APPROACH THE LOWER 30S. SMOKE DISPERSION SHOULD BE EXCELLENT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN EAST LATER TONIGHT. NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN EAST LATER TONIGHT. NO RAIN IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE RELATIVELY WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72. MIN HUMIDITY........32-39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6400 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 10 TO 17 MPH GUSTING TO 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........60 63 65 66 66 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TSTM COV........ TEMP............65 68 70 68 65 RH..............50 40 32 40 48 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..15 13 12 11 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51. MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........EAST 9 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........65 57 47 42 51 65 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........ TEMP............64 60 56 53 51 49 RH..............46 61 68 75 80 82 20 FT WIND......N 8 NE 7 NE 6 NE 5 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........EAST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........78 85 86 86 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD TEMP............48 53 59 62 RH..............83 76 69 61 20 FT WIND......E 6G10 E 9G15 E 10G15 E 10G15 $$ FORECASTER...EWENS REQUESTED BY...JASON EKSTEIN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120503.TYMPA.01/FGF