FNUS75 KGJT 031802
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEADOWS FIRE...NORTHWEST IMT3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1202 PM MDT THU MAY 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1135 MDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT TIMES AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE BURN SITE
TODAY...BUT LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

***I USED OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBS, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AIRPORT, FOR
THIS FORECAST***

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH...QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2400-24300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH...QUICKLY BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/
                    DOWNVALLEY 8 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY. AFTER 1300 BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 8 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 27 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW POHLMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120503.MEADO.01/GJT