FNUS76 KLOX 031519 CCA
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANCHO 2...LACOFD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
635 PM PDT WED MAY 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE BETTER CLEARING ON THURSDAY AND A FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER ON
THURSDAY AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN SOME. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY POSSIBLY
DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER ONCE AGAIN AND BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO A CUT
OFF LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION...BUT MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT.


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY THEN BECOMING SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.
                    PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 72-74.
RH..................56-60 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH 2 TO 5 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 1100 HOURS WITH
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 3500
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49-52.
RH..................MAX 85-90 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 14 MPH
                    THROUGH 2000 HOURS...BECOMING VARIABLE 2 TO
                    4 MPH OVERNIGHT.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST TO WEST 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    THEN DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 AGL EARLY EVENING...THEN LOWERING TO
                    AROUND 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 7 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...KAPLAN
REQUESTED BY...RUDY GILSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120503.RANCH.01/LOX