FNUS72 KJAX 061109
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BALDWIN BAY 2...FFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
709 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE LOW LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. NO ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-5300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 54 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 44
                    INCREASING TO 53 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........36     33     33     38     43
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR
TEMP............68     80     88     91     91
RH..............87     58     45     40     41
20 FT WIND......W 3    W 6    W 9    W 10   W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....800    3100   4500   5300   5100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8    W 10   W 12   W 9    W 10
LAL.............1      1      2      2      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 0
                    TO 1 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....54 DECREASING TO 4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........51     62     66     68     67     71
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............88     82     76     73     71     69
RH..............47     60     72     79     86     93
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 6    W 3    NW 1   NW 0   N 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     5
MIX HGT (FT)....4300   2900   1900   1400   900    500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10   NW 9   NW 6   NW 3   NW 1   N 0
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 1 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 38.

$$
FORECASTER...HESS
REQUESTED BY...BARRY COULLIETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120506.BALDW.01/JAX