FNUS72 KJAX 061936
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BALDWIN BAY 2...FFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
336 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NASSAU COUNTY WILL REACH
THE FIRE LOCATION AROUND 4 PM WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH. STRONGER GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEAR
NEAR THE FIRE. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1700...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-5700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 12 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....53.

TIME (EDT)      4 PM
SKY (%).........30
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM
TEMP............92
RH..............39
20 FT WIND......W 10-15 SHIFTING TO THE NE 10-15
20 FT WIND GUST.15-20
MIX HGT (FT)....5400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 SHIFTING TO THE NE 15
LAL.............2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0300...THEN 2 UNTIL 0500...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....43 DECREASING TO 5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........47     56     60     62     67     77
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............87     79     75     72     69     67
RH..............45     66     75     83     92     100
20 FT WIND......NE 9   NE 7   N 5    N 3    N 2    N 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10            5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4600   2400   1600   1100   600    100
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 10  NE 8   E 9    NE 8   N 6    N 3
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      2

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 32.

$$
FORECASTER...HESS
REQUESTED BY...BARRY COULLIETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120506.BALDW.02/JAX