FNUS72 KJAX 061108
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR COUNTY LINE FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
708 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0725 EDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 54 BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........42     39     37     43     50     56
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............68     80     88     91     92     90
RH..............96     70     50     42     41     48
20 FT WIND......W 3    W 6    W 7    W 8    W 8    W 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....800    3200   4600   5200   5200   4700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8    NW 9   NW 9   W 7    W 9    NW 9
LAL.............1      1      2      3      3      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....DECREASING TO 4 BY LATE TONIGHT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........56     62     67     70     71     75
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............89     82     76     73     70     68
RH..............48     62     74     81     87     95
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 5    W 2    SW 1   S 0    S 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10            5
MIX HGT (FT)....4200   2700   1700   1200   800    300
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 9   NW 8   W 7    SW 6   S 3    SE 1
LVORI...........2      3      3      5      6      8
LAL.............4      4      3      3      3      3

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-3900 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 5 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 42 BY LATE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ZIBURA
REQUESTED BY...JEFF DEMATTEIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120506.COUNT.01/JAX