FNUS74 KEPZ 071552
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR L-T WEST...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
952 AM MDT MON MAY 7 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MDT ON MAY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.


...THERE IS A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT FOR BURN LOCATION TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY...

...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR STORMS...VIRGA SHAFTS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
BUILD-UPS...



DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE AN EXTREMELY
DRY ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH THROUGH ARIZONA.  THE LOW IS CARRYING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER OUR AREA TODAY.  THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BURN SITE TODAY

A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SITE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN MORE HUMID CONDITIONS...A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AND IMPROVED
CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 11 AM...INCREASING AND
                    SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 15900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 19 KNOTS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......15000-16200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000-12600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

$$
FORECASTER...TRIPOLI
REQUESTED BY...LIZ CARVER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120507.LTWES.01/EPZ