FNUS72 KJAX 080932 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR BALDWIN BAY 2...FFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 532 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0509 EDT ON MAY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND THE BALDWIN BAY AREA THROUGH 8 AM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH OR LESS...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1600...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........VARIABLE 2 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 2 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........51 60 60 62 66 68 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............64 66 77 83 86 86 RH..............100 99 74 60 52 51 20 FT WIND......N 0 W 0 W 2 W 5 NW 6 E 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....100 100 1800 2900 3800 3800 TRANSPORT WIND..N 1 W 0 W 3 W 6 W 6 NW 5 LVORI...........10 10 3 2 2 2 DISPERSION INDX.1 1 6 15 18 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 30 50 60 LAL.............1 1 1 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2200...THEN 3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING WINDS........EAST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 1 TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DISPERSION INDEX....15 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........72 77 76 64 64 63 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............84 79 74 72 70 68 RH..............56 67 80 86 88 92 20 FT WIND......E 7 SE 5 S 2 SW 0 W 1 NW 0 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3300 2300 1300 900 800 500 TRANSPORT WIND..N 5 NE 6 E 7 NE 6 W 3 NW 1 LVORI...........2 3 5 6 6 7 DISPERSION INDX.13 5 4 4 3 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 50 30 30 20 LAL.............4 4 3 1 1 1 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 58. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...BARRY COULLIETTE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120508.BALDW.01/JAX