FNUS72 KJAX 090959 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR BALDWIN BAY 2...FFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 559 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0548 EDT ON MAY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES TODAY...WITH MUCH LOWER VALUES ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH ON THURSDAY. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-70 PERCENT). AREAS DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........WEST 3 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 22 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 35 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 52 IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 55 64 65 68 70 WEATHER COV.....AREAS PATCHY S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............64 67 79 86 89 89 RH..............100 99 71 56 48 47 20 FT WIND......SW 1 W 2 W 6 W 8 W 12 W 13 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....100 100 2000 3300 4200 4300 TRANSPORT WIND..W 1 W 2 W 8 W 13 W 16 W 16 LVORI...........10 9 3 1 1 1 DISPERSION INDX.2 4 22 50 51 47 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 20 40 50 LAL.............1 1 1 2 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....50 DECREASING TO 8. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........76 83 87 85 85 74 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............86 79 73 70 68 65 RH..............53 65 80 88 93 94 20 FT WIND......W 10 W 8 W 7 W 8 W 8 NW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3700 2400 1300 800 500 400 TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 12 W 9 W 8 W 8 NW 8 LVORI...........1 3 4 5 6 6 DISPERSION INDX.50 17 7 8 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 30 LAL.............3 3 3 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5200 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....10 INCREASING TO 26 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 45 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 33 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LVORI...............4. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...BARRY COULLIETTE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120509.BALDW.01/JAX