FNUS75 KGJT 100621
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHIMNEY PARK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1221 AM MDT THU MAY 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY WITH
VERY LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH IT. STRONG MIXING WILL STILL LEAD TO
GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL BUT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD TURN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...BUT
ALSO BE LIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD AND STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 12000 FT AGL WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL EXPECTED AGAIN
WITH GOOD MIXING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST UTAH WHICH MAY HAVE THE
FINAL SAY IN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION IF IT SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE
SOUTH...WITH A MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION IF
THIS HAPPENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD
                    BY NOON.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 700.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39 TO 44 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASING
                    TO POOR OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING INDEX......850 DECREASING TO 50.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
                    BECOMING WEST AT AROUND 5 MPH BY MID MORNING.
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 1050.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JEFF FLICK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120510.CHIMN.01/GJT