FNUS75 KGJT 102013
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHIMNEY PARK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
213 PM MDT THU MAY 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
.AFTERNOON UPDATE... THANKS TO JEFF FOR CALLING. VIRGA IS BUILDING
NEAR THE FIRE SITE. THE LATEST MODELS PAINT SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED THIS FORECAST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE VIRGA OR SHOWERS. ALSO
MODIFIED THIS AFTERNOON WINDS FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN INSTEAD OF THE
GRADIENT WEST WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHEAST UTAH TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH IT. STRONG
MIXING WILL STILL LEAD TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL BUT TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD TURN THE
WEST BY LATE MORNING...BUT ALSO BE LIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH THE RIDGE WESTWARD
AND STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE UP
TO AROUND 12000 FT AGL WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH EXCELLENT
SMOKE DISPERSAL EXPECTED AGAIN WITH GOOD MIXING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHEAST UTAH WHICH MAY HAVE THE FINAL SAY IN SURFACE WIND
DIRECTION IF IT SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH...WITH A MORE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION IF THIS HAPPENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY.

.THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60%). ISOLATED LIGHT
                    SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 1500 THROUGH 2000
                    HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE 3-8 MPH...EXCEPT ERRATIC GUSTS AS
                    HIGH AS 25 MPH NEAR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
                    VIRGA.
CLEARING INDEX......700-850 THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39 TO 44 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING INDEX......850 DECREASING TO 50.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
                    BECOMING WEST AT AROUND 5 MPH BY MID MORNING.
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 1050.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 18 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JEFF FLICK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120510.CHIMN.01/GJT