FNUS73 KMQT 100958 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR DUTCH MILL...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 558 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES TODAY. AS MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD...DRIER AIR WILL BE MIXED DOWN...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 23 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARD 70. IT IS EXPECTED THAT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...BUT IF THE LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAN STRENGTHEN ENOUGH AND PUSH NORTH... WINDS COULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER LIGHT WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS WEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 4 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 3 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (494) AT IGNITION INCREASING TO MAX EXCELLENT (962) BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO FAIR (281) EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...THEN TO 8300-10200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 7000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........8 8 8 9 11 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............53 64 68 69 68 RH..............41 27 25 24 25 GENERAL WIND....W 4 NW 5 N 5 N 5 NE 7 GENERAL GUST....5 10 10 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.494 876 900 795 499 MIX HGT (FT)....4900 8800 10000 9900 8300 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 93 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM RH..............34 50 69 80 90 91 GENERAL WIND....S 5 S 5 S 4 S 4 S 4 SW 4 GENERAL GUST....10 10 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 71. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 40 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 33 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (463) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1019) BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO GOOD (339) EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-5300 FT AGL BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1400-2900 FT AGL LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.01 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........7 8 12 19 40 63 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 61 69 71 71 68 RH..............75 52 41 40 42 47 GENERAL WIND....SW 6 SW 6 SW 10 S 12 S 12 S 10 GENERAL GUST....15 15 25 25 25 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.48 463 734 945 1019 684 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2900 4900 5300 4900 2900 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...ROLFSON REQUESTED BY...STEVE NURSE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120510.DUTCH.01/MQT