FNUS73 KDLH 111258
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO FARMS...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
758 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO THE APPROACH AND PASSING OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...IS ESTIMATED TO PASS THROUGH THE
BURN LOCATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM.
RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEAR THAT WINDOW WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE BURN LOCATION AREA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE THEN. MOST OF ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT THERE MAY BE A STRAY STRONGER STORM THAT WOULD HAVE SMALL
HAIL. THE FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT A TOTAL OF A TENTH OR TWO OF PCPN
FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS EVENING. THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD
CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROP TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. EXPECT S OR SW WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
THE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME W AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
                    OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH BECOMING WEST LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (19100) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (63850) IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    DECREASING TO GOOD (59600) LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............60     67     69     68     63
RH..............49     45     49     54     65
20 FT WIND DIR..S      S      S      SW     W
20 FT WIND SPD..11     15     13     11     10
20 FT WIND GUST.17     23     22     17     15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 40
                    PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (57200) DECREASING TO POOR (1150).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............56     52     49     45     42     41
RH..............77     83     86     93     96     92
20 FT WIND DIR..NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..10     8      6      3      2      2
20 FT WIND GUST.14     10     7

$$
FORECASTER...GEOFF
REQUESTED BY...STEVE RADAJ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120511.BUFFA.01/DLH