FNUS72 KILM 111605 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR CARVER S BAY...SC FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1205 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1155 EDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...SEA BREEZE WILL BRING GENERALLY EAST WIND GUSTS JUST UNDER 20 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE CARVERS BAY FIRE LOCATION. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH BELOW-NORMAL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CREATE ONSHORE WINDS NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .THIS AFTERNOON... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST 6 TO 9 MPH...LOCAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-7600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH. MAX ADI.............28. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (15494-42665 MPH-FT). EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 8 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............13 22 23 15 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................73 76 77 78 RH..................44 38 36 36 20 FT WIND..........NE 6 NE 6 NE 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......NE 5 NE 4 NE 4 E 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........3700 6000 7300 7500 TRANSPORT WIND......N 7 N 6 N 6 N 5 LVORI...............2 2 2 2 ADI.................25 26 28 22 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...26 34 42 35 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 6 MPH. MAX ADI.............19. MAX LVORI...........6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (1150-23574 MPH-FT). EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............15 15 12 8 4 4 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................75 68 63 58 56 54 RH..................41 56 67 77 79 87 20 FT WIND..........E 4 E 3 E 2 E 2 NE 2 NE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......E 3 E 2 E 2 E 1 NE 2 NE 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........5100 300 300 300 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND......N 5 N 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 6 E 6 LVORI...............2 2 3 3 4 6 ADI.................19 2 2 2 3 3 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...24 1 1 1 1 1 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100-6400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH. MAX ADI.............53. MAX LVORI...........6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1724-55774 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (70035-73830 MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............5 6 14 15 16 17 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................54 59 72 78 78 79 RH..................90 79 58 46 43 44 20 FT WIND..........NE 2 NE 3 E 4 E 5 SE 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......NE 2 NE 2 E 3 E 4 SE 4 SE 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........300 300 2300 4400 6400 6200 TRANSPORT WIND......E 7 E 8 E 9 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12 LVORI...............6 4 2 1 1 1 ADI.................3 6 25 40 53 52 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...2 2 21 45 74 71 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...DOUG MILLS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120511.CARVE.01/ILM