FNUS75 KGJT 130025
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSHY MOUNTAIN...GRAND JUNCTION DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
625 PM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1728 MDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE BURN SITE
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS DISTURBANCES WILL THEN PASS OVER WESTERN COLORADO ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...
INCLUDING ANY VIRGA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS.

***PLEASE CHECK THE SUBMITTED BURN SITE LOCATION. THIS FORECAST
   WAS FOR A LOCATION IN THE NORTH FORK OF THE ESCALANTE.***


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH UNTIL
                    SUNSET...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON 2-7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000...THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    AROUND SUNSET (6000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH THIS EVENING THEN 5 OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON
                    7 MPH AROUND SUNSET.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY IN THE EARLY MORNING THEN INCREASING
                    CLOUDS (60-70% BY 1500). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST...INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH
                    AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1...IN THE MORNING...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 18800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNCANYON 10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    NORTH 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120512.BRUSH.01/GJT