FNUS76 KMFR 120439
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST MCCLOUD TS UNDERBURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
939 PM PDT FRI MAY 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

DISCUSSION...THE THERMAL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER THE BURN AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. THE
THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE BURN AREA TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND POOR RECOVERIES.

SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL
START TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE ABOVE THE SURFACE AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES TOWARDS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING IN INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT WERE
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME BUILDING CUMULUS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW. THUS INCREASING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MORE ON THIS
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR IN COMING DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-13 PERCENT.
20 FT. WINDS........CALM EARLY IN THE MORNING. VARIABLE 0-2 MPH
                    BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST 1-3 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........56-60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN EAST
                    0-3 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 11 TO 18 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...PETRUCELLI
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW WELDON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120512.EASTM.01/MFR