FNUS76 KMFR 130548
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR COOL 10...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1048 PM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL START OUT JUST WEST OF
THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WARMER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD
ONLY BE A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT IT'S NOT
LOOKING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS NEAR THE BURN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT COULD BE A
SITUATION IN WHICH THEY DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES THEN DRIFT WEST
TOWARDS THE BURN AREA. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE A STABLE MARINE
LAYER COULD SNEAK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON THUS SUPPRESSING THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT. MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW IN COMING DAYS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. A BUILDING CLOUDS EAST OF THE BURN AREA
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-14 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 0-2 MPH IN THE MORNING. UPSLOPE
                    1-3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-78 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE 1-3 MPH EARLY...THEN DOWNSLOPE 1-2 MPH
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 6 TO 9 MPH BY MID EVENING. SOUTHEAST
                    2-4 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-39 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....VARIABLE 0-2 MPH IN THE MORNING. WEST TO
                    NORTHWEST 2-4 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...PETRUCELLI
REQUESTED BY...MONICA RAMIREZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120513.COOL1.01/MFR