FNUS76 KMFR 131337
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR HCFP UNDERBURN G...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
637 AM PDT SUN MAY 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL 5 TO 6 HAINES INDEX. TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY.

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER..........MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
                     CLOUDS INCREASE AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN.
MAX TEMPERATURE......88-93.
MIN HUMIDITY.........18-23 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS......EAST 1-3 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE 1-3 MPH BY LATE
                     MORNING. WIND THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 1-3 MPH
                     DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE WINDS..........EAST 5-10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 0-10 MPH LATE
                     MORNING...THEN TURNING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN
                     THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT........500 FT AGL OR LESS EARLY BECOMING 2000 FT AGL
                     LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 10,000 FT
                     AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS......EAST 5-10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 0-10 MPH LATE
                     MORNING...THEN TURNING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN
                     THE AFTERNOON.
CWR..................0 PERCENT.
HAINES STABILITY.....5 INCREASING TO 6 (MODERATELY UNSTABLE BECOMING
                     VERY UNSTABLE).
INVERSION DURATION...MORNING INVERSION NEAR 5000 FT MSL BREAKING
                     AROUND 11 AM DPT.


.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER..........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30%
                     CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE......53-58.
MAX HUMIDITY.........71-81 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS......BECOMING NORTH 0-2 MPH, THEN DOWNSLOPE 0-2 MPH.
RIDGE WINDS..........NORTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH 5 MPH AND THEN
                     SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH TOWARD MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT........FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS DURING THE
                     EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS......NORTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH 5 MPH AND THEN
                     SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH TOWARD MORNING.
CWR..................0 PERCENT.
HAINES STABILITY.....6 DECREASING TO 5 (VERY UNSTABLE BECOMING
                     MODERATELY UNSTABLE).
INVERSION DURATION...INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING NEAR
                     5000 FT MSL.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER..........PARTLY SUNNY. A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                     THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE......78-83.
MIN HUMIDITY.........30-40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS......WEST-SOUTHWEST 0-2 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 0-2
                     MPH.
RIDGE WINDS..........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT........500 FT AGL OR LESS INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL
                     LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL
                     IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS.........SOUTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS......SOUTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 MPH.
CWR..................20 PERCENT.
HAINES STABILITY.....4 DECREASING TO 3 (SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BECOMING
                     MOSTLY STABLE).
INVERSION DURATION...NEAR 6000 FT MSL BREAKING LATE MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER...LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...MARIO GOMEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120513.HCFPU.01/MFR