FNUS76 KMFR 140442
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR HCFP UNDERBURN G...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
942 PM PDT SUN MAY 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED BUILD-UPS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING.
FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE BURN AREA. HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ANY ISOLATED STORM NEAR OR OVER THE
BURN AREA COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION WHICH COULD BECOME
GUSTY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BURN AREA TONIGHT USHERING
IN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER RECOVERIES. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT
THIS TIME WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER..........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                     MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE......76-81.
MIN HUMIDITY.........30-40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS......WEST-SOUTHWEST 0-2 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 0-2
                     MPH.
RIDGE WINDS..........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT........500 FT AGL OR LESS INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL
                     LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL
                     IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS.........SOUTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS......SOUTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 MPH.
CWR..................20 PERCENT.
HAINES STABILITY.....4 DECREASING TO 3 (SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BECOMING
                     MOSTLY STABLE).
INVERSION DURATION...NEAR 6000 FT MSL BREAKING LATE MORNING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-93 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH 0-2 MPH EARLY, THEN DOWNSLOPE 0-2 MPH.
RIDGE WINDS.........NORTH-NORTHWEST 4-6 MPH, BECOMING NORTH 1-3 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS DURING THE
                     EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH 5 MPH.
CWR.................16 PERCENT IN THE EVENING. 0 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES STABILITY....3 (MOSTLY STABLE).
INVERSION DURATION..INVERSION DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING NEAR
                    4500 FT MSL.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY BELOW 2000 FT MSL THROUGH MID MORNING
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MOSTLY SUNNY ABOVE
                    2000 FT MSL THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-35 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 0-2 MPH THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
                    NORTH 1-3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE WINDS.........NORTH 1-3 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    3-6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT BY LATE MORNING.
                    5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5-8 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 MPH IN THE MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES STABILITY....3 (MOSTLY STABLE).
INVERSION DURATION..MORNING INVERSION NEAR 4000 FT MSL BREAKING BY
                    LATE MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER...PETRUCELLI
REQUESTED BY...MARIO GOMEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120513.HCFPU.01/MFR