FNUS76 KMFR 130433
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR STAWBERRY RX...FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 PM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 PDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL START OUT WEST OF THE
BURN AREA THIS MORNING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS
CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT IT'S NOT LOOKING UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN WILL BE VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS COULD INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A HIGHER
CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. KEEP IN MIND THE DETAILS ON THIS COULD CHANGE AND
THIS SERVES AS A HEADS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL THREAT.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
                    FEW BUILDING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-13 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 0-2 THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST 2-5 MPH LATE MORNING THROUGH
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 6-13 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 1-3 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN DOWNSLOPE
                    1-3 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5-9 MPH EARLY...THEN EAST 1-3 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 1-2 MPH EARLY...THEN SOUTHEAST
                    2-5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WIND
                    DIRECTION COULD BECOME ERRATIC AND
                    BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND UNDER THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 9-16 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...PETRUCELLI
REQUESTED BY...ART GRIFFITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120513.STAWB.01/MFR