FNUS73 KAPX 140938 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR OGEMAW FIRES...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 538 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0519 EDT ON MAY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDS AT THE FIRE SITE ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...STARTING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MID MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY GUSTS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW...BUT WILL STILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE FIRE SITE. SOMEWHAT GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY... JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW NEARLY-DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WOULD NOT ONLY POSE A THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT WOULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........41 AT REQUEST...MAX 75. RH..................79 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 21 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH BY LATE MORNING ...AND WEST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0) AT REQUEST. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE 0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........3 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 6 6 WEATHER COV.....PTY WEATHER TYPE....FST TEMP............41 43 44 53 61 67 70 72 72 73 74 75 RH..............79 76 73 50 36 28 24 23 23 22 21 21 20 FT WIND DIR..NW W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 4 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 100 200 400 500 500 600 700 700 800 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46. RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........7 8 9 11 16 21 26 31 34 35 38 41 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............75 74 71 67 61 56 51 49 47 46 46 47 RH..............21 24 28 33 42 51 63 71 76 83 83 83 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 5 5 5 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78. RH..................MIN 29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2000). MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200-8700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 48 51 56 59 58 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 54 67 75 77 78 RH..............80 66 42 32 30 29 20 FT WIND......SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 15 20 SMOKE DISP......0 0 600 1400 1800 2000 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120514.OGEMA.01/APX