FNUS73 KAPX 141458 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR OGEMAW FIRES...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1058 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1042 EDT ON MAY 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...WITH FULL SUN AND DRY AIR...MIXING HAS BEGUN OVER THE FIRE AREA...CREATING SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 12MPH. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM...UNTIL FULL MIXING IS COMPLETE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........68 AT REQUEST...MAX 75. RH..................27 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 7 TO 9 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 12 MPH THROUGH 1 PM. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT REQUEST. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE 4100-4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........2 2 3 3 4 6 6 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............68 70 71 72 73 74 75 RH..............27 23 21 20 22 21 21 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 7 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......400 500 500 600 700 700 800 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46. RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........7 8 9 11 16 21 26 31 34 35 38 41 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............75 74 71 67 61 56 51 49 47 46 46 47 RH..............21 24 28 33 42 51 63 71 76 83 83 83 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 5 5 5 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78. RH..................MIN 29 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2000). MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200-8700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 17 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........44 48 51 56 59 58 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 54 67 75 77 78 RH..............80 66 42 32 30 29 20 FT WIND......SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 15 20 SMOKE DISP......0 0 600 1400 1800 2000 $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT ROZANSKI REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120514.OGEMA.02/APX