FNUS75 KBOU 151241 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY GULCH RX BURN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 641 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TODAY WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WILL SEE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH LIGHT TO BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. SMOKE DISPERSION LOOKS EXCELLENT ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THURSDAY BEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD SATURDAY TO BRING COOLER WEATHER AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76. MIN HUMIDITY........10%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0-4 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6400 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 10200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 14400-15400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 12600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35. MAX HUMIDITY........56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68. MIN HUMIDITY........21%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 12000-13000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR DRY GULCH RX BURN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/15-06 1 0 0 32 41 CALM 1 4 1 NE15 118 CALM 147 P 05/15-07 1 0 0 35 37 CALM 1 4 1 NE14 965 SE 2 2817 P 05/15-08 1 0 0 44 28 E 2 2 4 1 NE13 1811 E 2 5487 P 05/15-09 1 0 0 53 21 E 2 2 4 1 NE12 2658 E 3 8157 P 05/15-10 1 0 0 59 18 E 2 2 4 1 E 9 6436 E 3 24682 P 05/15-11 1 0 0 65 16 SE 3 3 4 1 E 7 10213 SE 5 41207 F 05/15-12 18 0 0 68 14 SE 3 3 4 1 E 6 13991 SE 5 57732 F 05/15-13 18 0 0 72 12 S 3 3 4 1 SE 7 14590 SE 5 62562 G 05/15-14 18 0 0 75 10 S 5 5 4 1 S 8 15190 S 5 67392 G 05/15-15 18 0 0 73 10 SW 5 5 4 1 S 9 15789 S 6 72222 G 05/15-16 18 0 0 71 10 SW 5 5 4 1 SW10 14200 SW 6 71611 G 05/15-17 18 0 0 70 11 SW 5 5 3 1 SW12 12610 SW 7 71000 G 05/15-18 31 0 0 67 13 SW 5 5 3 1 SW13 11020 SW 7 70389 G 05/15-19 31 0 0 65 15 S 5 5 3 1 SW13 7990 S 7 50659 F 05/15-20 31 0 0 61 18 S 3 3 3 1 SW12 4961 S 7 30930 P 05/15-21 31 0 0 56 23 SE 3 3 3 1 W12 1931 S 7 11200 P 05/15-22 31 0 0 51 27 SE 3 3 3 1 W10 1350 S 7 7794 P 05/15-23 31 0 0 48 32 S 3 3 3 1 W10 768 S 6 4388 P 05/16-00 32 0 0 46 36 S 3 3 3 1 W 9 186 S 6 982 P 05/16-01 32 0 0 44 39 S 2 2 3 1 W10 166 S 5 758 P 05/16-02 32 0 0 41 42 CALM 1 3 1 W12 147 S 3 534 P 05/16-03 32 0 0 40 46 CALM 1 3 1 W12 127 S 2 310 P 05/16-04 32 0 0 38 52 CALM 1 3 1 W12 135 S 3 407 P 05/16-05 32 0 0 37 56 S 2 2 3 1 W10 143 S 3 503 P 05/16-06 52 8 2 40 51 S 3 3 3 1 W10 151 S 5 600 P 05/16-07 52 8 2 42 50 S 3 3 3 1 W10 372 S 6 2498 P 05/16-08 52 8 2 46 45 S 3 3 3 1 SW10 593 SW 7 4397 P 05/16-09 52 8 2 51 38 SW 5 5 3 1 SW10 814 SW 9 6296 P 05/16-10 52 8 2 56 32 SW 7 7 3 1 SW18 4750 SW 9 54798 F 05/16-11 52 8 2 61 26 SW 9 15 3 1 SW17 8817 SW12 105376 V 05/16-12 54 15 3 65 23 SW12 18 3 3 SW17 12885 SW14 155954 E 05/16-13 54 15 3 66 21 SW13 21 3 3 SW17 13060 SW14 155242 E 05/16-14 54 15 3 66 21 SW13 21 3 3 SW17 13235 SW14 154530 E 05/16-15 54 15 3 66 21 SW13 21 3 3 SW17 13410 SW13 153818 E 05/16-16 54 15 3 66 22 SW12 18 3 3 SW17 12475 SW13 134259 V 05/16-17 54 15 3 65 23 W10 16 2 3 SW17 11540 W12 114701 V 05/16-18 53 10 2 64 26 W 8 13 2 2 SW17 10605 W10 95143 G 05/16-19 53 10 2 62 29 SW 7 7 2 2 SW16 9240 W10 80162 G 05/16-20 53 10 2 59 33 SW 6 6 3 2 W16 7876 SW 9 65182 G 05/16-21 53 5 1 55 39 SW 5 5 3 1 W15 6511 SW 9 50202 F 05/16-22 53 5 1 52 45 SW 3 3 3 1 W14 5033 SW 8 37506 P 05/16-23 53 5 1 49 52 S 3 3 3 1 W14 3554 S 7 24810 P 05/17-00 30 2 0 46 57 S 3 3 3 1 W13 2075 S 7 12114 P 05/17-01 30 2 0 44 60 S 3 3 3 1 W14 1603 S 6 9042 P 05/17-02 30 2 0 42 62 S 3 3 2 1 W14 1131 S 6 5969 P 05/17-03 30 2 0 41 64 S 3 3 2 1 NW15 659 S 5 2896 P 05/17-04 30 2 0 40 67 SW 3 3 2 1 NW15 543 S 5 2315 P 05/17-05 30 2 0 39 70 SW 3 3 2 1 N16 427 SW 5 1734 P 05/17-06 26 3 1 38 72 SW 3 3 2 1 N16 311 SW 5 1152 P 05/17-07 26 3 1 40 63 SW 3 3 2 1 N16 1392 SW 6 8251 P 05/17-08 26 3 1 43 52 SW 3 3 2 1 N16 2473 W 6 15350 P 05/17-09 26 3 1 48 41 SW 5 5 2 1 N15 3554 W 7 22449 P 05/17-10 26 3 1 54 33 SW 6 6 2 1 N15 6148 W 8 50788 F 05/17-11 26 3 1 61 27 W 7 7 2 1 NW15 8743 NW 9 79127 G 05/17-12 30 5 1 65 24 W 8 13 2 1 NW15 11337 NW10 107467 V 05/17-13 30 5 1 68 22 W 9 15 2 1 NW16 12064 NW12 125244 V 05/17-14 30 5 1 69 21 SW10 16 2 1 NW17 12790 W13 143021 V 05/17-15 30 5 1 69 21 SW10 16 2 1 W18 13517 W14 160798 E 05/17-16 30 5 1 69 20 SW 9 15 2 1 W20 12915 W15 162509 E 05/17-17 30 5 1 69 21 W 8 14 3 1 W21 12314 W15 164221 E 05/17-18 32 3 1 68 22 W 7 7 3 1 W23 11712 W16 165932 E 05/17-19 32 3 1 66 23 SW 6 6 3 1 W26 10080 W16 139530 V 05/17-20 32 3 1 62 27 SW 6 6 2 1 W30 8448 W15 113128 V 05/17-21 32 3 1 59 30 SW 5 5 2 1 W35 6816 SW15 86726 G 05/17-22 32 3 1 55 35 S 5 5 2 1 W39 5246 SW12 61947 G 05/17-23 32 3 1 52 39 S 3 3 2 1 SW44 3677 SW 9 37169 P 05/18-00 15 2 0 49 43 S 3 3 2 1 SW47 2107 S 7 12391 P 05/18-01 15 2 0 46 46 S 3 3 2 1 SW47 1508 S 6 8737 P 05/18-02 15 2 0 44 47 S 3 3 2 1 SW45 908 S 6 5083 P 05/18-03 15 2 0 43 48 S 3 3 2 1 SW44 309 S 6 1430 P 05/18-04 15 2 0 42 49 S 3 3 2 1 SW43 298 S 6 1565 P 05/18-05 15 2 0 41 51 S 5 5 3 1 W41 287 S 7 1701 P 05/18-06 28 2 0 40 52 S 6 6 3 1 W40 277 S 8 1836 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DEZARAE STAHLIN REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120514.DRYGU.01/BOU