FNUS75 KBOU 161317 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY GULCH RX BURN...BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 717 AM MDT WED MAY 16 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ONE WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR MORE ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE CHANCE ANY WETTING RAINS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH IS RATHER LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72. MIN HUMIDITY........17%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 12400-13400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....41. MAX HUMIDITY........74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73. MIN HUMIDITY........22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 12000-13000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR DRY GULCH RX BURN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/16-07 48 0 0 46 42 S 3 3 4 1 W 8 1353 SW 7 12226 P 05/16-08 48 0 0 53 32 SW 3 3 3 1 W 7 2468 SW 9 23419 P 05/16-09 48 2 0 58 27 SW 3 3 3 1 W 7 3583 SW12 34612 P 05/16-10 48 2 0 62 24 SW 5 5 3 1 W 7 6943 SW12 70455 G 05/16-11 48 2 0 66 21 SW 6 6 4 1 SW 8 10302 SW12 106299 V 05/16-12 64 22 4 69 19 SW 8 8 4 2 SW10 13661 SW12 142142 V 05/16-13 64 22 4 70 18 SW10 10 3 2 SW13 13696 SW14 163462 E 05/16-14 64 22 4 72 17 W14 22 3 2 W14 13731 W15 184781 E 05/16-15 64 22 4 70 18 W15 24 2 2 W16 13765 W17 206101 E 05/16-16 64 22 4 69 19 W14 22 2 2 W17 12855 W16 181450 E 05/16-17 64 22 4 68 20 W10 10 2 2 W18 11945 W15 156800 E 05/16-18 57 11 2 65 24 W 8 8 2 2 W20 11035 W14 132149 V 05/16-19 57 11 2 64 26 SW 6 6 2 2 W20 9049 W13 102696 V 05/16-20 57 11 2 61 30 SW 5 5 2 2 W18 7063 SW12 73243 G 05/16-21 57 6 1 59 34 SW 3 3 2 1 W17 5078 SW10 43791 F 05/16-22 57 6 1 54 39 SW 3 3 2 1 W15 3611 SW10 31577 P 05/16-23 57 6 1 52 42 S 3 3 2 1 W12 2144 SW12 19363 P 05/17-00 46 2 0 50 45 S 3 3 2 1 W 9 677 SW13 7150 P 05/17-01 46 2 0 48 48 S 3 3 2 1 SW 6 538 SW10 5259 P 05/17-02 46 2 0 46 54 S 3 3 2 1 SE 3 398 SW 8 3368 P 05/17-03 46 2 0 43 63 SW 3 3 2 1 E 2 259 SW 7 1477 P 05/17-04 46 2 0 42 65 SW 3 3 2 1 CALM 256 SW 6 1293 P 05/17-05 46 2 0 41 68 SW 3 3 2 1 N 2 253 SW 5 1110 P 05/17-06 29 10 2 41 70 SW 3 3 2 1 N 3 250 SW 5 926 P 05/17-07 29 10 2 43 68 SW 3 3 2 1 N 5 973 SW 5 4805 P 05/17-08 29 10 2 46 62 SW 5 5 2 1 N 7 1696 W 6 8683 P 05/17-09 29 10 2 51 53 W 5 5 2 1 N 8 2419 W 6 12562 P 05/17-10 29 10 2 57 43 W 5 5 2 1 NW18 6695 W10 64418 G 05/17-11 29 10 2 63 34 W 5 5 2 1 NW18 8923 NW12 92460 G 05/17-12 49 10 2 68 29 W 6 6 2 2 N17 11151 NW13 120501 V 05/17-13 49 10 2 70 26 W 7 7 2 2 NW17 11879 NW13 130766 V 05/17-14 49 10 2 71 24 W 9 15 2 2 NW17 12608 NW13 141031 V 05/17-15 49 10 2 72 23 W10 16 2 2 NW17 13337 W13 151296 E 05/17-16 49 10 2 72 23 W10 17 2 2 W17 12641 W13 141313 V 05/17-17 49 10 2 72 22 W10 16 2 2 W17 11945 W13 131330 V 05/17-18 30 4 1 71 23 W 9 15 2 1 W17 11249 W13 121348 V 05/17-19 30 4 1 69 24 SW 7 7 2 1 W20 9802 W13 107425 V 05/17-20 30 4 1 66 27 SW 5 5 2 1 W23 8355 W13 93503 G 05/17-21 30 3 1 63 30 SW 3 3 2 1 W26 6908 W14 79581 G 05/17-22 30 3 1 60 35 S 3 3 2 1 W30 5661 SW13 62160 G 05/17-23 30 3 1 57 39 S 3 3 2 1 W33 4413 SW12 44739 F 05/18-00 25 1 0 54 44 S 3 3 2 1 SW36 3165 SW10 27319 P 05/18-01 25 1 0 51 48 S 3 3 2 1 SW37 2246 SW 9 18987 P 05/18-02 25 1 0 49 51 SW 5 5 2 1 SW37 1327 S 8 10654 P 05/18-03 25 1 0 48 53 SW 5 5 2 1 SW37 408 S 7 2322 P 05/18-04 25 1 0 47 54 SW 5 5 2 1 SW37 382 S 7 2230 P 05/18-05 25 1 0 46 54 S 5 5 2 1 SW37 355 S 7 2139 P 05/18-06 37 1 0 45 55 S 6 6 2 1 SW37 328 S 7 2047 P 05/18-07 37 1 0 47 51 S 7 7 2 1 SW37 1389 S10 19869 P 05/18-08 37 1 0 50 45 SW 9 14 2 1 SW36 2450 SW15 37690 P 05/18-09 37 1 0 54 39 SW10 16 2 1 SW35 3511 SW18 55511 F 05/18-10 37 1 0 59 31 SW12 17 2 1 SW33 5882 SW20 109480 V 05/18-11 37 1 0 65 25 SW12 18 2 1 SW32 8254 SW22 163449 E 05/18-12 48 2 0 69 22 SW13 21 2 1 SW31 10625 SW23 217417 E 05/18-13 48 2 0 71 22 SW15 24 2 1 SW31 11280 SW25 245741 E 05/18-14 48 2 0 72 22 SW17 28 2 1 SW32 11935 SW26 274065 E 05/18-15 48 2 0 72 22 SW18 30 2 1 SW33 12590 SW28 302389 E 05/18-16 48 2 0 72 22 SW18 29 2 1 SW33 12286 SW28 300425 E 05/18-17 48 2 0 71 22 SW17 26 2 1 SW35 11983 SW29 298460 E 05/18-18 45 11 2 69 23 SW15 24 2 2 SW35 11679 SW29 296496 E 05/18-19 45 11 2 67 24 SW13 21 2 2 SW35 10029 SW26 237070 E 05/18-20 45 11 2 64 26 SW10 16 2 2 SW35 8379 SW23 177645 E 05/18-21 45 11 2 61 30 SW 8 13 2 2 SW35 6728 SW21 118220 V 05/18-22 45 11 2 57 34 SW 6 6 2 2 SW35 5831 SW17 92374 G 05/18-23 45 11 2 54 40 SW 5 5 2 2 SW35 4934 SW15 66528 G 05/19-00 32 10 2 50 45 SW 3 3 2 1 SW33 4037 SW12 40683 F 05/19-01 32 10 2 48 50 SW 3 3 2 1 SW32 3109 SW 9 29110 P 05/19-02 32 10 2 45 55 W 3 3 2 1 W30 2181 SW 8 17537 P 05/19-03 32 10 2 44 59 W 3 3 2 1 W28 1252 SW 6 5964 P 05/19-04 32 10 2 42 62 W 3 3 2 1 W25 1275 W 6 5840 P 05/19-05 32 10 2 41 66 W 5 5 2 1 W23 1298 W 5 5716 P 05/19-06 44 21 4 41 68 W 5 5 2 1 W21 1321 W 5 5592 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...COLT MORTENSON REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120516.DRYGU.01/BOU