FNUS73 KFSD 161329 FWSFSD SPOT FORECAST FOR BELMONT 5 PB...MN DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 829 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE THIS BURN IS IN A LITTLE TROUGH AREA OF TOPOGRAPHY. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. IF THE TOPOGRAPHY IS STEEP ENOUGH HOWEVER...I WONDER IF THE WIND DIRECTION COULD TAKE ON MORE OF A STRAIGHT SOUTH ATTRIBUTE BY MID AFTERNOON AS IT FUNNELS NORTHWARD. THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IF YOUR EXACT WIND DIRECTION IS CRITICAL FOR SMOKE DISPERSION. SPEAKING OF WHICH...BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS...SMOKE DISPERSION WILL LIKELY ONLY BE FAIR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF ANY INCREASED DRYING TAKES HOLD. .TODAY... MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR % SKY COVER.....7 6 6 5 7 10 12 13 14 15 14 13 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............44 52 57 62 65 67 68 70 72 73 73 72 RH..............73 56 47 39 35 32 31 29 27 27 27 28 20 FT WIND DIR..SSE NNE ENE E E ESE SE SE SSE SSE SSE SSE 20 FT WIND SPD..1 3 5 6 6 6 5 7 9 12 13 12 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 15 15 15 SMOKE DISPERSAL.PR PR FR FR FR FR PR PR FR FR GD GD CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.3 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.1 3.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.NNE NE ENE E E E E ESE SSE S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.3 6 8 8 7 5 3 3 5 7 10 13 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 .TONIGHT... MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55. MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY % SKY COVER.....12 25 34 39 44 48 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............70 63 58 56 54 53 RH..............31 43 56 65 70 74 20 FT WIND......SSE 12 SSE 10 SSE 12 S 14 S 16 S 17 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 25 25 SMOKE DISPERSAL.GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .THURSDAY... MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY % SKY COVER.....50 50 46 37 40 42 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 63 72 78 82 83 RH..............72 61 51 45 40 37 20 FT WIND......S 17 S 21 S 22 S 26 S 28 S 26 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 35 35 35 SMOKE DISPERSAL.POOR FAIR GOOD EXCEL EXCEL EXCEL CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1000 1900 2700 3100 2300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 20 S 28 S 35 S 39 S 43 S 39 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 5 5 WEATHER TYPE ABBREVIATIONS 1) T = THUNDERSTORMS 2) R = RAIN 3) RW = RAIN SHOWERS 4) L = DRIZZLE 5) ZR = FREEZING RAIN 6) ZL = FREEZING DRIZZLE 7) S = SNOW 8) SW = SNOW SHOWERS 9) IP = ICE PELLETS 10) F = FOG 11) ZF = FREEZING FOG 12) IC = ICE CRYSTALS 13) H = HAZE 14) BS = BLOWING SNOW 15) K = SMOKE 16) BD = BLOWING DUST 17) FR = FROST $$ FORECASTER...MJF REQUESTED BY...BRAD BOLDUAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120516.BELMO.01/FSD