FNUS73 KFSD 161334 FWSFSD SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK RIDGE SNA...MN DNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 834 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE THIS BURN HAS A BIT OF A NORTH TO NORTHEAST ASPECT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. IF MY TOPOGRAPHY CONTOURS ARE CORRECT...IT IS DOUBTFUL IF THE WIND WILL BECOME STRAIGHT SOUTH. BUT BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL LIGHT WINDS...SMOKE DISPERSION WILL LIKELY ONLY BE FAIR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...INCREASING TO GOOD BY LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 25 PERCENT BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF ANY INCREASED DRYING TAKES HOLD. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...AND LAST THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. .TODAY... MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76. MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR % SKY COVER.....8 7 6 5 8 11 14 15 15 16 15 14 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............46 53 58 62 65 67 68 70 72 74 74 73 RH..............68 54 47 41 37 33 31 29 27 26 26 27 20 FT WIND DIR..SSW N NE E ESE SE SE SE SSE SSE SSE SSE 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 3 5 6 5 5 7 9 12 13 12 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 15 15 15 SMOKE DISPERSAL.PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR GD GD GD CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.3 2.3 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.ENE E E E E E E ESE SSE S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 9 13 16 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 .TONIGHT... MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56. MAX HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY COVER.......MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY % SKY COVER.....13 28 39 45 54 58 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............72 64 59 57 55 54 RH..............29 40 52 60 67 73 20 FT WIND......SSE 12 SSE 10 SSE 10 S 13 S 16 S 17 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 25 25 SMOKE DISPERSAL.GOOD FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .THURSDAY... MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY COVER.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY % SKY COVER.....59 62 56 41 45 47 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 62 70 76 80 82 RH..............73 63 53 46 40 37 20 FT WIND......S 16 S 20 S 23 S 26 S 29 S 28 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 35 40 35 SMOKE DISPERSAL.POOR GOOD EXCEL EXCEL EXCEL EXCEL CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....600 1400 2100 2800 3500 3300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 33 S 39 S 38 S 40 S 37 HAINES INDEX....5 6 6 6 6 5 WEATHER TYPE ABBREVIATIONS 1) T = THUNDERSTORMS 2) R = RAIN 3) RW = RAIN SHOWERS 4) L = DRIZZLE 5) ZR = FREEZING RAIN 6) ZL = FREEZING DRIZZLE 7) S = SNOW 8) SW = SNOW SHOWERS 9) IP = ICE PELLETS 10) F = FOG 11) ZF = FREEZING FOG 12) IC = ICE CRYSTALS 13) H = HAZE 14) BS = BLOWING SNOW 15) K = SMOKE 16) BD = BLOWING DUST 17) FR = FROST $$ FORECASTER...MJF REQUESTED BY...BRAD BOLDUAN TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120516.ROCKR.02/FSD