FNUS72 KJAX 161035 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR BALDWIN BAY 2...FFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 635 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0628 EDT ON MAY 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL EARLY INCREASING TO 3000-3600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........WEST LESS THAN 5 MPH EARLY...5 TO 10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 35. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........68 76 77 77 79 81 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............68 74 79 83 84 83 RH..............100 94 76 63 55 62 20 FT WIND......W 2 W 3 W 7 W 8 SW 9 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....100 1000 2000 3200 3600 3200 TRANSPORT WIND..W 1 W 5 W 9 W 10 SW 10 W 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 30 40 50 LAL.............1 2 2 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING WINDS........WEST 3 TO 8 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....22 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........82 83 83 82 81 76 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 73 70 67 65 65 RH..............66 91 94 100 100 100 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 5 S 2 SW 1 NW 0 W 0 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 600 400 100 100 100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 S 5 S 2 SW 1 W 0 W 0 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 50 40 40 30 LAL.............3 4 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 1 TO 5 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 16 IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...ALLEN REQUESTED BY...PAT DEREN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120516.BALDW.01/JAX