FNUS73 KMPX 161130 FWSMPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMON LAKE...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 630 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH NO MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO DROP RH VALUES TO NEAR 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN CLOSE TO 10 MPH BY SUNSET. CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST... POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 73. RH..................33 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1100-45300) INCREASING TO GOOD (59700) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........EAST 2 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 1 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............54 62 67 72 72 71 RH..............45 33 29 26 27 28 20 FT WIND......E 5 SE 5 S 6 S 9 S 12 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 20 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (33900-67900) DECREASING TO POOR (4600-11000) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 20 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 31 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85. RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW TO OR HIGH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (14500-57300) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (131900-139400). $$ FORECASTER...CALDERONE REQUESTED BY...MATT GRAEVE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120516.SIMON.01/MPX