FNUS72 KJAX 171030
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BALDWIN BAY 2...FFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
630 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0624 EDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1600...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-4400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 34.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........80     78     71     63     61     70
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............64     72     81     85     86     86
RH..............99     91     69     55     46     49
20 FT WIND......W 1    W 2    NW 5   N 5    N 5    E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....200    1400   2600   4000   4400   4300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 5    W 6    W 8    NW 8   NW 8   NW 7
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     40     50     60
LAL.............2      2      2      3      3      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    0500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1600 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....23 DECREASING TO 4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........72     77     67     56     46     49
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............83     78     73     71     69     67
RH..............53     63     75     81     83     87
20 FT WIND......E 3    E 5    E 2    E 1    NE 1   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5             5      5             5
MIX HGT (FT)....3600   2600   1600   1200   1100   900
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 6   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   E 6    NE 5
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     60     40     30     20     20
LAL.............4      4      3      3      2      2

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 31.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...PAT DEREN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120517.BALDW.01/JAX