FNUS75 KMSO 171716
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR CROOKED UNIT 59
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1116 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE FIRE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...VIRGA WILL BE SEEN NEAR THE FIRE
BETWEEN NOW AND 1300 WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS...THEN RAIN REACHING
THE GROUND BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WETTING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED BUT IF DIRECTLY UNDER A CELL COULD SEE A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING. BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FIRE CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER. ALSO BREEZY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FIRE FRIDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    THROUGH NOON...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-5 MPH BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 6-7
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 15 MPH NEAR SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...JOSLYN OSBORN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120517.CROOK.01/MSO