FNUS73 KUNR 171550
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PILOT KNOB...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
950 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0918 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.  ON FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A WHILE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN SITE. THIS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST
FOR WIND DIRECTION TRICKY AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 81.
RH..................MIN 18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH AT 3 TO 6 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME ERRATIC AND
                    GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10800 TO 11800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    7 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND TERRAIN DOMINATED BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME ERRATIC AND GUSTY
                    IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77.
RH..................MIN 23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9900 TO 10900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT
                    8 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...JS
REQUESTED BY...BK 381
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120517.PILOT.01/UNR