FNUS75 KBOU 190117 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR EAGLE CLIFF FIRE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 716 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR ANY PASSING SHOWERS WHEN GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. ONE SHOWER WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BURN AREA AS OF 715 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANGE BACK TO DRIER AND WINDIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37. MAX HUMIDITY........71%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH UNTIL 0100...THEN NORTH 5-13 MPH. GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53. MIN HUMIDITY........48%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 5200-6200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36. MAX HUMIDITY........76%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 8400-9400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR EAGLECLIFF FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/18-19 67 10 2 64 19 SW13 21 5 2 SW24 9184 SW16 156088 E 05/18-20 67 10 2 59 23 SW12 18 5 2 SW24 4740 SW14 79338 G 05/18-21 67 10 2 54 29 SW10 10 5 2 SW24 297 SW10 2587 P 05/18-22 67 10 2 51 33 W 8 8 5 2 SW24 270 SW 8 2016 P 05/18-23 67 10 2 48 36 W 6 6 4 2 S23 243 W 7 1445 P 05/19-00 72 10 2 46 41 W 5 5 4 1 S23 216 W 5 874 P 05/19-01 72 10 2 44 47 W 6 6 4 1 SW23 209 W 6 965 P 05/19-02 72 10 2 42 56 N 7 7 4 1 SW22 201 NW 6 1056 P 05/19-03 82 30 9 40 64 N 8 8 4 1 SW20 194 NW 7 1146 P 05/19-04 82 30 9 39 69 N 8 8 4 1 SW16 282 NW 7 1541 P 05/19-05 82 30 9 39 71 N 7 7 3 1 S10 369 N 6 1935 P 05/19-06 95 50 26 39 71 NE 6 6 3 1 S 7 457 NE 6 2330 P 05/19-07 95 50 26 42 61 NE 6 6 3 1 SW 6 1434 N 7 9346 P 05/19-08 95 50 26 42 58 NE 6 6 3 1 W 7 2411 N 7 16363 P 05/19-09 95 50 26 45 51 NE 6 6 3 1 W 8 3389 N 8 23380 P 05/19-10 95 50 26 47 48 NE 7 7 3 1 W12 4224 N 9 32709 P 05/19-11 95 50 26 49 48 NE 9 9 3 1 W15 5059 NW 9 42039 F 05/19-12 74 40 18 51 48 NE10 10 3 1 W18 5895 NW10 51369 F 05/19-13 74 40 18 51 49 NE10 10 3 1 W20 6021 NW10 51857 F 05/19-14 74 40 18 52 50 NE 9 9 3 1 W21 6147 NW10 52346 F 05/19-15 74 40 18 52 50 NE 8 8 3 1 W22 6274 NW 9 52834 F 05/19-16 74 40 18 53 51 NE 7 7 3 1 W24 5781 NW 8 42524 F 05/19-17 74 40 18 52 52 NE 6 6 3 1 W28 5288 W 7 32213 P 05/19-18 65 21 4 51 54 E 5 5 3 1 W30 4795 W 6 21902 P 05/19-19 65 21 4 50 56 E 5 5 3 1 W32 3990 W 5 16174 P 05/19-20 65 21 4 47 60 SE 3 3 3 1 W35 3185 SW 3 10446 P 05/19-21 65 21 4 45 65 SE 3 3 3 1 W36 2380 S 2 4719 P 05/19-22 65 21 4 43 69 SE 3 3 3 1 W35 1771 SW 3 4114 P 05/19-23 65 21 4 42 71 S 5 5 3 1 W31 1162 SW 5 3509 P 05/20-00 52 7 1 40 72 SW 5 5 3 1 W29 553 SW 6 2904 P 05/20-01 52 7 1 39 74 SW 5 5 3 1 W28 453 SW 6 2257 P 05/20-02 52 7 1 39 75 SW 5 5 3 1 W25 352 SW 5 1609 P 05/20-03 52 7 1 38 76 SW 5 5 3 1 W24 252 SW 5 961 P 05/20-04 52 7 1 37 75 SW 5 5 3 1 W23 238 SW 5 872 P 05/20-05 52 7 1 37 75 S 3 3 3 1 W22 225 SW 3 782 P 05/20-06 43 8 2 37 73 S 3 3 3 1 W22 211 SW 3 692 P 05/20-07 43 8 2 39 68 S 2 2 3 1 W21 878 SW 3 1392 P 05/20-08 43 8 2 43 56 S 2 2 3 1 W20 1544 SW 2 2093 P 05/20-09 43 8 2 47 47 SE 2 2 3 1 W20 2211 CALM 2793 P 05/20-10 43 8 2 51 40 SE 3 3 3 1 W20 4421 SW 3 21410 P 05/20-11 43 8 2 54 36 SE 5 5 3 1 W21 6632 SW 6 40027 F 05/20-12 55 20 4 57 32 E 6 6 3 3 W23 8842 W 8 58644 F 05/20-13 55 20 4 58 31 E 6 6 3 3 W26 9106 W 9 69029 G 05/20-14 55 20 4 59 30 SE 7 7 3 3 W29 9369 W 9 79414 G 05/20-15 55 20 4 59 30 SE 7 7 3 3 W32 9633 SW10 89799 G 05/20-16 55 20 4 60 30 SE 7 7 3 3 W33 8855 SW 9 73160 G 05/20-17 55 20 4 59 31 SE 8 13 3 3 W35 8077 SW 8 56521 F 05/20-18 41 16 3 58 33 SE 8 13 3 3 W35 7300 SW 6 39883 P 05/20-19 41 16 3 56 36 SE 7 7 3 3 W33 5009 SW 7 27494 P 05/20-20 41 16 3 53 41 SE 7 7 3 3 W31 2719 S 7 15105 P 05/20-21 41 16 3 50 47 S 7 7 3 3 W29 428 S 7 2716 P 05/20-22 41 16 3 47 52 S 8 14 3 3 W28 368 S 8 2603 P 05/20-23 41 16 3 46 56 S10 17 3 3 W28 308 S10 2490 P 05/21-00 17 9 2 44 59 S13 21 3 1 W26 248 SW12 2377 P 05/21-01 17 9 2 43 62 SW14 22 3 1 W26 227 SW12 2264 P 05/21-02 17 9 2 42 64 SW14 23 4 1 W26 207 SW12 2152 P 05/21-03 17 9 2 40 65 SW14 22 4 1 W26 187 SW13 2039 P 05/21-04 17 9 2 40 65 SW13 21 4 1 W26 161 SW12 1676 P 05/21-05 17 9 2 40 63 W12 18 3 1 W26 135 W10 1313 P 05/21-06 20 5 1 40 62 W 9 15 3 1 W26 109 W10 950 P 05/21-07 20 5 1 42 56 W 7 7 3 1 W25 966 W 8 3572 P 05/21-08 20 5 1 48 43 W 3 3 3 1 NW23 1822 W 6 6194 P 05/21-09 20 5 1 54 34 W 2 2 3 1 NW23 2678 W 3 8816 P 05/21-10 20 5 1 59 27 SW 2 2 3 1 NW24 5492 W 7 44327 F 05/21-11 20 5 1 64 23 SE 5 5 3 1 NW25 8305 W 9 79837 G 05/21-12 34 7 1 67 20 E 6 6 3 1 NW26 11118 W12 115348 V 05/21-13 34 7 1 69 19 E 7 7 3 1 W26 11939 W12 117395 V 05/21-14 34 7 1 70 19 E 8 13 4 1 W25 12760 W10 119442 V 05/21-15 34 7 1 71 18 E 8 13 4 1 W24 13580 W10 121490 V 05/21-16 34 7 1 71 18 SE 7 7 4 1 W22 13034 W 9 106005 V 05/21-17 34 7 1 70 18 SE 6 6 4 1 W20 12489 W 8 90519 G 05/21-18 39 7 1 69 20 SE 5 5 4 1 W17 11943 SW 7 75034 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JEFFCO REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120518.EAGLE.01/BOU