FNUS75 KBOU 230226 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SYLVAN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 825 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ESTIMATED TIME FOR THE FRONTS ARRIVAL IS BETWEEN 2300 AND 0030...HOWEVER THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT SHOULD ONLY BE FELT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE FIRE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER...AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WET THUNDERSTORMS MIXING IN AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING FROM THE WEST AS WELL. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....41. MAX HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24-32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59. MIN HUMIDITY........31%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13-22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 32-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 6200-7200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36. MAX HUMIDITY........71%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 3200-4200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0500...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0700...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SYLVAN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/22-20 52 0 0 65 15 W17 26 2 1 W52 4063 W29 140640 V 05/22-21 52 0 0 59 19 W14 21 2 1 W52 1117 SW22 21179 P 05/22-22 52 0 0 54 24 W13 13 2 1 W53 835 SW17 14835 P 05/22-23 52 0 0 52 30 SW13 13 2 1 W55 553 SW14 8491 P 05/23-00 50 6 1 50 36 SW12 12 2 1 W58 271 SW 9 2146 P 05/23-01 50 6 1 47 40 SW 9 9 2 1 W59 269 SW 8 1984 P 05/23-02 50 6 1 45 41 W 7 7 2 1 W58 268 S 8 1823 P 05/23-03 50 6 1 44 42 W 5 5 2 1 W58 266 S 7 1661 P 05/23-04 50 6 1 43 45 W 6 6 2 1 W56 252 S 8 1644 P 05/23-05 50 6 1 41 49 SW 8 8 3 1 W55 239 S 8 1627 P 05/23-06 71 10 2 41 51 SW10 10 3 1 W55 225 S 8 1610 P 05/23-07 71 10 2 42 50 S10 15 3 1 W58 702 S12 9696 P 05/23-08 71 10 2 45 47 SW12 16 3 1 W60 1180 SW15 17781 P 05/23-09 71 10 2 49 41 W13 20 3 1 W63 1657 W18 25867 P 05/23-10 71 10 2 53 36 W16 24 3 1 W66 3472 W24 91946 G 05/23-11 71 10 2 57 32 W18 29 3 1 SW68 5287 W30 158025 E 05/23-12 89 46 23 59 31 W21 31 3 4 SW69 7101 W37 224105 E 05/23-13 89 46 23 59 32 W20 29 3 4 SW67 7155 SW35 214719 E 05/23-14 89 46 23 58 35 W16 24 2 4 SW64 7208 SW33 205334 E 05/23-15 89 46 23 58 36 W14 21 2 4 SW62 7261 SW31 195949 E 05/23-16 89 46 23 58 35 W14 21 2 4 SW63 7131 SW32 201273 E 05/23-17 89 46 23 58 33 W14 21 2 4 SW66 7000 SW35 206598 E 05/23-18 78 37 15 56 34 W14 22 2 4 SW67 6869 SW36 211922 E 05/23-19 78 37 15 54 37 W12 20 2 4 SW68 6264 W30 166911 E 05/23-20 78 37 15 51 43 W10 16 2 4 W67 5658 W23 121899 V 05/23-21 78 37 15 48 50 W 9 15 2 4 W67 5053 W17 76887 G 05/23-22 78 37 15 45 56 W 9 14 2 4 W64 4537 W17 68330 G 05/23-23 78 37 15 43 60 W 9 15 2 4 W61 4021 W17 59772 F 05/24-00 80 9 2 42 64 W 9 15 2 1 W59 3505 W17 51215 F 05/24-01 80 9 2 40 66 W 9 15 2 1 W58 3316 W17 48948 F 05/24-02 80 9 2 39 69 W 9 14 2 1 W58 3126 W17 46680 F 05/24-03 80 9 2 38 71 W 8 13 2 1 W59 2936 W17 44413 F 05/24-04 80 9 2 37 71 W 6 6 2 1 W62 3424 W18 54748 F 05/24-05 80 9 2 37 70 W 5 5 2 1 W66 3913 W18 65084 G 05/24-06 66 20 4 37 69 W 3 3 2 1 W69 4401 W20 75420 G 05/24-07 66 20 4 39 63 W 6 6 2 1 W74 5230 W23 110654 V 05/24-08 66 20 4 42 54 W 8 14 2 1 W78 6059 W26 145889 V 05/24-09 66 20 4 46 47 W12 18 2 1 W82 6888 W30 181123 E 05/24-10 66 20 4 49 40 W14 22 2 1 W84 7203 W31 192560 E 05/24-11 66 20 4 52 36 W16 25 2 1 W84 7518 W31 203997 E 05/24-12 68 8 2 54 33 W17 28 2 1 W84 7833 W32 215434 E 05/24-13 68 8 2 55 31 W18 30 2 1 W84 7978 W35 237326 E 05/24-14 68 8 2 56 30 W20 31 2 1 W83 8123 W37 259217 E 05/24-15 68 8 2 56 30 W20 31 2 1 W82 8268 W39 281109 E 05/24-16 68 8 2 57 30 W20 31 2 1 W82 7582 W37 242574 E 05/24-17 68 8 2 56 30 W17 28 2 1 W81 6897 SW33 204039 E 05/24-18 48 2 0 55 32 W15 24 2 1 W78 6211 SW31 165505 E 05/24-19 48 2 0 53 34 W10 16 2 1 SW74 4268 SW21 110451 V 05/24-20 48 2 0 50 39 N 5 5 2 1 SW67 2325 S10 55397 F 05/24-21 48 2 0 47 45 CALM 1 2 1 SW62 382 CALM 343 P 05/24-22 48 2 0 44 49 NE 2 2 2 1 SW59 337 S 3 872 P 05/24-23 48 2 0 43 53 E 5 5 3 1 SW58 293 S 6 1400 P 05/25-00 46 10 2 41 56 SE 7 7 3 1 SW58 248 SE 9 1929 P 05/25-01 46 10 2 40 59 SE 7 7 3 1 SW59 247 S 9 1936 P 05/25-02 46 10 2 38 61 S 7 7 2 1 SW61 245 S 9 1944 P 05/25-03 46 10 2 37 63 S 6 6 2 1 SW62 244 SW 9 1951 P 05/25-04 46 10 2 37 64 S 6 6 2 1 SW61 250 SW 9 2087 P 05/25-05 46 10 2 37 64 SW 6 6 2 1 SW59 257 SW10 2223 P 05/25-06 43 10 2 37 65 SW 7 7 2 1 SW56 264 SW10 2359 P 05/25-07 43 10 2 38 61 SW 9 15 2 1 SW58 1545 SW17 38979 P 05/25-08 43 10 2 45 49 SW12 18 2 1 SW60 2826 SW24 75600 G 05/25-09 43 10 2 50 41 W14 22 2 1 SW62 4108 SW31 112220 V 05/25-10 43 10 2 55 34 W15 24 2 1 SW63 5016 SW32 138310 V 05/25-11 43 10 2 59 30 W15 24 2 1 SW63 5925 SW32 164399 E 05/25-12 50 18 4 62 27 W15 24 2 1 SW63 6834 SW32 190488 E 05/25-13 50 18 4 64 26 SW15 23 2 1 SW62 7477 SW31 198856 E 05/25-14 50 18 4 64 25 SW14 22 2 1 SW60 8120 SW30 207224 E 05/25-15 50 18 4 65 24 SW13 21 2 1 SW56 8764 SW29 215592 E 05/25-16 50 18 4 66 24 SW12 20 2 1 SW52 7708 SW23 166306 E 05/25-17 50 18 4 65 24 SW12 18 3 1 S46 6652 SW18 117020 V 05/25-18 42 10 2 64 25 SW10 16 3 1 S39 5596 SW14 67734 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SHELLI MAVOR REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120522.SYLVA.01/BOU