FNUS72 KILM 221222 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR LAWA 5-22...NC STATE PARKS-LAWA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 822 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON MAY 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE WACCAMAW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE WACCAMAW FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD STALL BACK IN THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH THIS MORNING...THEN 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAX ADI.............58. MAX LVORI...........10. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD (52554 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO 65089 MPH-FT IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............32 52 51 57 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE TSTMS TSTMS TSTM COV............ ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP................76 81 83 82 RH..................70 57 54 55 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 5 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 12 16 MIX HGT (FT)........1800 3000 4300 4400 TRANSPORT WIND......S 7 SW 12 S 14 SW 15 LVORI...............3 1 1 1 ADI.................3 37 53 58 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...13 35 59 65 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT... THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. MAX ADI.............37. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-33005 MPH-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............63 69 69 70 71 69 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP................80 76 72 70 69 68 RH..................61 71 80 87 91 95 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 5 S 4 S 4 SW 4 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........2600 1000 300 300 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND......SW 13 S 8 S 2 S 0 S 0 S 0 LVORI...............1 3 5 6 7 9 ADI.................37 11 2 1 1 1 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...33 8 1 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-5600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 16 TO 20 MPH. MAX ADI.............61. MAX LVORI...........9. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-56234 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (69805-105569 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............68 66 66 65 64 65 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................68 70 77 82 82 82 RH..................96 90 70 58 57 58 20 FT WIND..........S 3 SW 4 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 11 11 MIX HGT (FT)........300 300 1500 3100 4700 5600 TRANSPORT WIND......S 4 S 5 S 12 S 18 S 17 S 18 LVORI...............9 7 3 1 1 1 ADI.................1 1 8 44 51 61 VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1 2 17 56 81 106 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN SHORT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120522.LAWA5.01/ILM