FNUS74 KLIX 231359 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT O-10S-17...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 859 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COASTLINE THROUGH BATON ROUGE IS THE DIVIDING AREA BETWEEN 50 DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH AND DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. OTHER THAN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT AFTN STORMS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. 1. PLEASE INCLUDE A FOG POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. 2. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION, AND CONVERSATIONS WITH FORECASTERS, TODAYS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING BACK NORTH, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE EAST. PLEASE INCLUDE A REMARK ON HOW THIS SCENARIO MIGHT PLAY OUT, AND THE DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS WE CAN EXPECT, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT THE TRANSPORT WIND ELEVATION. ALSO, CONSIDER THE IMPACT OF A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF...A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. IN ADDITION...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN WESTERLY POSSIBLY DECREASING BY 4 TO 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. 3. ACCORDING TO THE POINTANDCLICK FORECAST FOR THIS LOCATION, WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHOULD WE EXPECT WIND TO GO CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW OR A LANDBREEZE. THIS COULD POSSIBLE OCCUR TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. 4. RH AT SHCM6 HAS DROPPED FROM 96 TO 59 IN THE LAST HOUR. RH BELOW 70 BEFORE 8AM IS A WATCHOUT FOR RH LOWER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT IS THE LOWEST RH WE SHOULD EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN RH WAS CAUSED BY A JUMP IN TEMP...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE BY NOON. THIS WILL OFFSET THE INCREASING TEMPS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 45 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 11 AM THROUGH 3 PM. . .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 36 36 36 42 42 42 42 42 42 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............77 82 86 87 87 87 87 87 86 84 RH..............78 64 55 48 45 45 46 50 55 60 DEWPOINT........64 64 64 64 63 63 64 65 66 66 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.7 4.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.2 8 8 8 8 7 7 10 10 10 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 DISPERSION......6 6 54 54 64 64 44 44 42 42 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........42 32 32 32 21 21 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............81 77 74 72 70 68 RH..............60 74 84 90 97 100 DEWPOINT........66 68 69 69 69 68 20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 5 S 4 S 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4700 3300 2200 2200 1900 1500 MIX HGT (M).....1430 1010 670 670 580 460 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 S 13 S 17 S 17 SW 15 SW 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 4 S 6 S 8 S 8 SW 7 SW 4 DISPERSION......42 39 41 7 7 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........21 22 22 22 25 25 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............67 72 82 84 86 86 RH..............100 90 67 61 57 57 DEWPOINT........67 69 70 69 69 69 20 FT WIND......SW 2 S 2 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 2200 3800 3800 5100 4800 MIX HGT (M).....460 670 1160 1160 1550 1460 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 SW 7 S 8 S 8 S 12 S 13 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 4 SW 3 S 4 S 4 S 5 S 6 DISPERSION......6 4 4 33 48 51 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SUNDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120523.CPTO1.01/LIX