FNUS73 KMQT 240954 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE CREEK...SENEY NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 554 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0222 EDT ON MAY 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...PLAN ON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SENEY WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOUTH WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO REACH 35 MPH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY...BUT ANY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCH. A GUSTY WEST WIND ON FRIDAY WILL ADVECT DRIER EAST INTO THE AREA AGAIN...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MOISTER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 81. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 30 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 TO 47 MPH INCREASING TO 34 TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (448) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (2044) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-5100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........25 22 18 15 18 22 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 68 76 78 80 78 RH..............76 55 42 36 31 32 GENERAL WIND....S 11 S 11 S 17 S 18 S 18 S 17 GENERAL GUST....20 20 30 35 37 30 VINDX KT-FT/100.65 448 1098 1750 2044 1410 MIX HGT (FT)....300 1500 3200 4600 5100 3500 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 55. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 88 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH BY LATE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 39 TO 63 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 45 TO 69 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING WEST AND DECREASING TO 36 TO 51 MPH LATE DECREASING TO 24 TO 41 MPH LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (207). LAL.................1 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 3 UNTIL 0500...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1200 FT AGL. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.09 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........25 47 67 86 75 56 WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR TEMP............73 73 71 67 61 56 RH..............39 41 46 57 77 88 GENERAL WIND....S 14 S 14 S 18 S 14 S 14 SW 11 GENERAL GUST....20 20 25 25 25 20 VINDX KT-FT/100.336 311 495 526 268 237 MIX HGT (FT)....800 700 1000 1000 700 900 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 2 2 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 75. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 32 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 36 MPH DECREASING TO 12 TO 29 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 6 TO 11 MPH LATE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 3 MPH OR LESS LATE. VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (866) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1410) LATE IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO FAIR (149) LATE. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000-6700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL LATE. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........30 35 40 45 47 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............56 63 69 72 75 71 RH..............79 60 45 37 32 37 GENERAL WIND....SW 12 SW 12 SW 14 W 12 W 12 W 8 GENERAL GUST....25 25 25 25 25 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.496 763 1131 1382 149 0 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 3800 6000 6600 2100 BLW100 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...KC REQUESTED BY...GARY LINSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120524.PINEC.01/MQT